17/08/2008

Drowning by numbers

CARLOS EDUARDO LINS DA SILVA
ombudsman@uol.com.br

Given the inevitability of having to confront numbers, many journalists choose simply to dump them on the heads of readers

The familiarity between journalists and numbers frequently is not peaceful. Many of them decide to take up this occupation after discovering early on about their incompatibility with arithmetic.

The drama is that the mathematical complexity of contemporary society is growing. The journalist who is unfamiliar with or hostile to numbers could seriously hurt readers.

On Aug. 6, Folha published two reports based on studies that were basically numbers. It made a mistake in a headline about the "map of violence in São Paulo," extracted from then-unprecedented data from the state's head of public safety while it relegated to a teaser a study by the Getulio Vargas Foundation and Applied Economic Research Institute (Ipea) about the growth of the middle class and decrease of misery in the country.

The objective mistake was to give priority to a story which is limited to one city, does not bring anything new of significance and has a relatively restricted impact for the future, in detriment to the other, which is the opposite.

What's worse is that the "map of violence," itself a useful, relevant and a praiseworthy effort, was hurt by ingenuousness about mathematics.

The release of the raw totals of crime rates by neighborhood without considering the number of inhabitants distorts any comparative conclusion with other neighborhoods.

As reader Persio Piccinini Mota asserted, "saying a region has 300 thefts and the other one has 400 thefts, while one has double the population of the other, not giving them the same equivalence... creates prejudices about neighborhoods already suffering and mainly, against poor people who live in these neighborhoods."

Making the raw data relative by using rates per 100,000 population, a consensual reference to science in these cases, was indispensable. If it is impossible because police precincts have distinct boundaries from those of the population statistics bureau or city hall, it is better to base it on the municipality's total or seek some acceptable alternative.

Alerted about the mistake, the newspaper reacted defensively, responded badly to the justified complaints and attacked the government for slowing the release of the wide-ranging statistics.

Piccinini Mota rightly criticized what he correctly called "lazy statistics." Given the inevitability of having to confront numbers, many journalists choose simply to dump them on the heads of readers.
For example, efforts are rare that give materiality to the billions of reals frequently cited in news reports about budgets and projects and make no concrete sense to the majority of mortals, whose financial resources are limited, at most, to tens of thousands.

In the specific case of news about crimes, in which the press in general, including Folha, have an old and immense debt of quality to the country, a mathematician could help settle it.

Accounting of mistakes

Coverage of the election campaign should be critical toward all the candidates. In this campaign in São Paulo, Folha has been much more critical of Mayor Gilberto Kassab than the others. In part, that is natural since he holds power. But there have been unjustified exaggerations, such as the large amount of space on Tuesday to the fact that the mayor's office has a news clipping service that includes the campaigns of other candidates

*

The state of São Paulo is letting go of one of its great assets, the Nossa Caixa thrift, whose sale to Banco do Brasil is on the eve of closing. Most Folha readers, citizens of this state, have a direct interest in this topic, since the bank "is theirs." But in the three months since the news first came out, the newspaper has failed to promote a wide-ranging debate on the topic, despite important sectors of society believing that in the case of selling a public bank, competitive bidding is obligatory.

*

Mistakes pointed out by reader Mario González on July 28 concerning the report about Federico Garcia Lorca were not corrected until Aug. 15. Aside from the wait, the correction left out important clarifications offered by the reader. The newspaper should speed up simple corrections such as this one and consider putting them in the same space as the mistakes that were committed.

What Folha did right

Kenneth Maxwell
His column on Thursday was assembled with erudition, opportunity, didacticism, the elegance of the Olympics, conflicts in the Caucasus, and Brazilian history

Friday front page
One of the most attractive front pages of the year, with excellent photos, sober diagrams, strong and exclusive headline, and relevant teasers

And where it was wrong

TV and the Olympics
The section about what we see on TV in the Olympics began with enormous confusion on Saturday and took days to reach an acceptable format

Line jumping
The newspaper did a good job telling the side of the doctor accused of jumping the line for transplants, but still did not offer readers its own investigation of the facts

Satyagraha
Mere registry of the facts and statements keep readers from understanding the controversy and the scheme of all the maneuvers behind the case

Nelson Ascher
Despite insistent readers who miss the disappearance of the columnist, the newspaper told him he will no longer be a contributor to Folha and that the news will come out when a replacement is named

Topics most commented during the week

1. Operation Satyagraha
2. Bossa nova singer João Gilberto
3. São Paulo DNA

To read

"Violence, the People and Police," by Maria Victoria Benevides, Brasiliense, 1983, (12 reals, or US $7.50, for sale at sites which sell used books) - excellent study about political coverage by the press from 1979 to 1981, with great suggestions about research still necessary

"Stray Bullets," Andi, 2002 (available on the Internet at www.andi.org/br_pdfs/balasperdidas.pdf) - good analysis about the way the press treats topics concerning violence, especially involving youth from 2000 to 2001

"A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper," by John Allen Paulos, First Anchor Books, 1995 (imported, starting at US $11.95 plus tax) - excellent suggestions by a mathematician who loves newspapers on how science could help improve them

To see

"A Beautiful Mind," by Ron Howard, with Russell Crowe and Ed Harris, 2001 (starting at 19.90 reals) - moving story about the journey in search of self-awareness by one of the most important mathematicians of the 20th Century, John Forbes Nash Jr.

"Drowning by Numbers," by Peter Greenaway, with Bernard Hill and Juliet Stevenson, 1988 - in his scatological style, Greenaway tells stories about lives under the orientation of numbers

-Translation by John Wright