10 Points Ahead of Aécio Neves, Marina Silva Would Win Against Dilma Rousseff in the Runoff, Says IBOPE
08/27/2014 - 09h10
FROM SÃO PAULO
Ibope Institute announced on Tuesday (26) a poll showing Marina Silva, the PSB candidate, with 29% of voting intentions in the first round.
She is behind President Dilma Rousseff by 5 points, with 34%, and 10 points ahead of Aécio Neves, the opposition candidate, who has 19% of voting intentions.
In the runoff simulation, Marina would beat Dilma with 45% of voting preference against Dilma's 36%. In a different simulation, against Aécio, Dilma would win with 41% and Aécio would have 35%.
The poll margin of error is two points. With this, there is no chance of a tie between Dilma and Marina or Marina and Aécio in the first round.
This is the first time that Ibope conducts a national poll with Marina's name on the list of candidates. The main survey data was published by the newspaper "O Estado de S. Paulo", which requested the poll in partnership with Globo TV.
The previous Ibope survey, in early August, showed Rousseff with 38%, Aécio with 23% and Eduardo Campos with 9%.
In the same round, Pastor Everaldo (PSC) got 1% of voting intentions. In August, according to Ibope, he had 3%. The other candidates totaled 1%. Nule and blank votes added up 7%. Undecided 8%.
Marina has also the lowest rejection rate. Only 10% say they would not vote on her at all. Dilma has a 36% rejection rate. Aécio 18%.
Ibope heard 2,506 voters from the 23 to 25. Trust level is 95% (from 100 polls using the same methodology, results are within the margin of error on 95 polls).
On the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), the poll is registered with the code BR 428/2014.
In a Datafolha survey conducted immediately after Eduardo Campos'death (August 13), Dilma reached 36%. At that time, Marina and Aécio were technically tied in second place, with 21% and 20%, respectively.
In the second round tested by Datafolha on August 14 and 15, Marina had 47% against 43% from Dilma, a technical tie reaching the maximum limits of the margin of error.
Datafolha should announce a new poll next weekend.
Translated by SIMONE PALMA
|Editoria de Arte/Folhapress|