Increased Optimism on Economy Boosts Dilma's Reelection Hopes

10/22/2014 - 10h38

Financial markets, many economists and several international institutions might be pessimistic regarding the Brazilian economy, but this feeling does not appear to have affected most Brazilians, who have provided President Dilma Rousseff with an increase in approval at just the right moment.

The most striking example of this is regarding inflation. A Datafolha survey conducted on Tuesday (21) shows that the expectation of price increases fell to the lowest level since 2007, when the institute began conducting surveys of this type.

In April, 64% believed that inflation would increase. At the end of September, 50% remained pessimistic. Now, that figure has fallen to just 31%. Expectation that inflation will fall is also at record levels (21%).

This renewed optimism is also reflected across a number of issues ranging from unemployment and purchasing power to the country's economic situation and interviewees' own personal situations.

The latest Datafolha opinion poll regarding voting intentions is almost identical to the one taken on Monday (20).

Rousseff is currently polling at 52% of the valid votes, Aécio Neves (PSDB) at 48%. It remains a technical tie given that the margin for error is two percentage points either way.

Of the total votes, Rousseff has 47%, up from 46%. Neves remains stable at 43%. Voters intending to spoil their ballots are at 6%, up from 5%, while undecided voters are at 4%, down from 6%.

The explanation for the increase in optimism could be the electoral campaign itself - including that of Neves, the reason being that voters from both sides believe that their chosen candidate will triumph and therefore be able to make improvements.

Amongst those intending to vote for Rousseff, 82% believe that she will be re-elected, while 78% of Neves voters believe that he will emerge victorious.

The discrepancy between popular perceptions and economic assessments appears significant.

After entering into recession between January and June, the economy recovered slightly during July and August. Nonetheless, the prediction is still that GDP growth will be just 0.3% this year.

Inflation, which slowed between June and August, accelerated in September, with food prices displaying an increase. The increase in cost of life has surpassed the limit set by the government and is currently at 6.75%.

The Datafolha survey confirmed that Rousseff has made progress with women (from 42% to 47% since September 9), with voters earning between two and five minimum wages (from 39% to 45% since September 15) and in the southeast region (from 34% to 40% since September 9).

A strong increase in interest in the elections was also registered. 50% said they were "very interested" in the elections, up from 39% at the end of August.

With the intensification of the contest, this makes the final debate on Friday (24, broadcast on TV Globo) even more important.

Datafolha spoke to 4,355 voters.

Translated by TOM GATEHOUSE

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	Editoria de Arte/Folhapress