With no Alternative for Former President Lula's Supporters, Presidential Race Continues Undefined

06/10/2018 - 01h31

Two months after the arrest of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT Party), his adversaries in the Presidential Race continue encountering difficulty in winning over voters.

A Datafolha from last week found that the PT Party leader still has 30% of voter preference and revealed that more than a third of voters say that they are without a preferred choice when analyzing scenarios where he isn't in the matchup.

Datafolha conducted interviews with 2,824 voters in 174 municipalities between Wednesday (the 6th) and Thursday (the 7th). The survey is the first that Datafolha has conducted since the truckers' strike which caused turmoil throughout the country, provoked a governmental crisis and hobbled the economy.

According to Datafolha, Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PSL-RJ Party), who supported the truck drivers, continues to lead in the presidential race with 19% of voter intention in scenarios where Lula is absent.

	Marlene Bergamo-28.fev.18/Folhapress
	Brazil's former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Former Senator Marina Silva (Rede Party) comes in second place in the survey with 15% of voter intent. Former Government Minister Ciro Gomes (PDT Party), who oscillates between 10 and 11% and former São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB Party), at 7%, are technically tied for third place.

Although Ciro Gomes appears to be numerically ahead in the survey results, the difference between the two candidates could actually be lower due to the study's statistical margin of error of 2 percentage points positive or negative.

Former Government Minister Henrique Meirelles (MDB Party), who launched an exploratory candidacy with the support of President Michel Temer, only has 1% of voter preference according to the survey.

On Friday (the 8th), the PT Party reaffirmed its desire to register Lula as its candidate. Lula is serving out a criminal sentence in Curitiba for corruption and money laundering and is expected to be barred by the Courts from running.

The strategy adopted by the Party so far has put off defining a name to substitute the former president if he is barred from running. The two names most cited to replace him, former mayor Fernando Haddad (São Paulo) and former governor Jaques Wagner (Bahia) both received 1% of voter intention in the survey.

A reflection of Lula's absence is a drop in the number of electors who spontaneously mention his name when asked about their intention to vote, but his prestige could be decisive for whichever candidate he eventually gives his support to. In voting scenarios where the former president isn't in the matchup, more than 40% of voters say that they have no one to vote for.