Industry Fall in August Was 'Hiccup', Analysts Say

10/04/2017 - 10h20

Industrial output fell 0.8% in August from the previous month, contrary to the expectations of most market economists, interrupting four consecutive months of expansion.

The result, analysts say, does not put an end to the resumption effort seen until July, but signals that the recovery of the sector follows the progress of the economy as a whole and is rather gradual.

In relation to September 2016, the increase was 4%. The forecast, says Rodrigo Nishida, of LCA Consultores, is that the segment will end the year with expansion of 2%.

This isn't difficult. Due to a statistical effect, stable numbers from September to December would be enough to reach the projection, explains Nishida.

An aspect that worries analysts is that after a few turbulent years the industry is still almost 20% below the record level of 2013.

Keeping up the pace of economic resumption seen until July, the industry would still take about seven years to match the 2013 mark.

To shorten this period, some economists see room for further stimulus to industry output, the main one being the Selic interest rate closer to 7% by the end of the year. Today it is at 8.25%.

Translated by MARINA DELLA VALLE

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	Jorge Araujo/Folhapress
	After a few turbulent years, the industry is still almost 20% below the record level of 2013