Brazil is expected to pass France by 2015, says Mantega

28/12/2011 - 09h30

Finance Minister Guido Mantega said that within the next four years, Brazil could overtake France and become the fifth largest economy in the world.

"The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecast is that in 2015 Brazil will be the fifth largest economy in the world, passing France. 2015 is good, but I think that it could happen a bit earlier," he said in São Paulo.

The minister noted that the country's growth rate exceeds that of European nations, and therefore it is "inevitable that we will pass France, and in the future, who knows, Germany."

As Folha's reporting showed in October, the IMF projection suggests that the Brazilian economy will pass the British this year, becoming the sixth largest.

The issue resurfaced this week with the disclosure of similar projections by the British consultancy CEBR (Center for Economic and Business Research).

The director of the World Economy Center at FGV, Carlos Langoni, said that it is possible for Brazil to overtake France in 2015 or earlier.

For this to occur in 2014, for example, the Brazilian economy needs to grow on average 4.5% in the next three years, and the French by 0.5%.

"It is difficult to predict exactly, but it is inevitable that Brazil, like India and Russia, will overtake the Europeans in the coming years."

Langoni points out, however, that more important than passing the developed countries is maintaining quality growth. This means not growing at too strong a pace that would cause imbalances like high inflation and rising public debt.

"The government talking about growing 5% in 2012 worries me. It needs to reduce inflation. Annual growth of 4% is healthier."

The Vice President for the Reduction of Poverty at the World Bank, Otaviano Canuto, explains that the emerging economies were already growing faster than rich countries, but the global crisis has increased this difference, because it affected developed countries more strongly.

He notes, however, that the quality of life of Brazilians is well below that of Europeans. According to the World Bank, Brazil's per capita income was $10,700 in 2010, almost one quarter of that in France ($39,500).

"You shouldn't fool with international comparisons. What matters is to promote social inclusion and increase the country's competitiveness, improving education and infrastructure," he claims.

With international agencies

Translated by DAVE WOLIN