Opinion: Thatcher's Revenge

09/19/2014 - 10h49

Today, the 18th September 2014, Scotland votes in a referendum on Independence. The public opinion polls agree on only one thing: The outcome is too close to call. The "No" camp is slightly in the lead. But between 6 to 10% say they are still undecided.

A turnout over 90% of the 4.29 million electorate is predicted, including first time voters between the ages of 16 and 17. The stakes are immense. One third of the land mass of what is today the United Kingdom could cease to be British territory. The 307 year union of Scotland and England could end.

Panic has set in among the leaders of the three main political parties in London. They have all rushed to Scotland over the past week. David Cameron, the British Prime Minster, speaking in Aberdeen before a carefully selected audience of party supporters, made a last ditch plea to Scots; "Do not break the family apart...If Scotland votes Yes, the UK will split, and we will go our separate ways forever."

The Prime Minister, whose father was born at Blairmore House in Aberdeenshire, is perceived by many Scots to be the very epitome of an English upper-class "toff," and his belated intervention only underscores part of the problem: How out of touch the London political establishment has become from grass-root politics, and how successfully Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland, has captured popular dissatisfaction in Scotland with Westminster.

An Independent Scotland is certainly a viable option. It will have 90% of Britain's North Sea oil revenues. The independence debate has focused on the currency (whether Scotland could continue using the pound sterling as Alex Salmond proposes), over differing projections of future oil and gas production, over the future of the national heath service and education, and over defence policy, where Salmond has pledged the removal of the Britain's nuclear armed Trident submarines from their Scottish base on the Clyde.

Outside observers have also weighed in. Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, called the oil projections "implausible" and a monetary union "inconceivable." Former World Bank president, Robert Zoellick and George Soros also support a "No" vote. The First Minister of Catalonia, Artur Mas, not surprisingly, is a supporter of Scottish Independence.

But why did unionist support in Scotland wither? The end of empire after WW2 certainly contributed. Scots found much business, employment, and opportunities, in the former colonies, as well as in the British armed forces. But a large part of the responsibility must be placed on Margaret Thatcher and developments during the 1980s.

Scotland's once great shipbuilding and coal industries terminally declined, and with them the trade union based working class "British" solidarity. These transformations were inevitable, but Thatcher encouraged them. The conservative party in Scotland now has only one member of parliament at Westminster.

The labour party currently holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seat in Parliament. An Independent Scotland would remove these and make a future labour party government implausible. Labour party leader Ed Miliband is panicked at the prospect, so that together with David Cameron and the Liberal Democratic leader Nick Clegg, he has signed a last minute pledge to give the Scottish parliament more "devolved" powers in the event of a "No" vote, a promise that has already provoked a backlash among English conservatives.

The truth is that if the UK ends as a result of the referendum vote in Scotland today, the London politicians (with a lot off help from the late Margaret Thatcher) have only themselves to blame.