Study Shows What Brazil Needs to Do to Comply with the Climate Agreement

03/29/2017 - 14h36

Researchers linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communications made the first integrated projection of Brazilian emissions of gases that cause global warming for the coming decades, bringing together in one model the role of different sectors of the economy, from livestock to industry.

The good news is that Brazil is able to meet its international commitments with little or no impact on economic growth and employment, according to the study.

The country is signatory to the Paris Agreement, the most comprehensive intergovernmental treaty on climate change created so far.

Under the agreement, negotiated in 2015, the Brazilian government committed to cutting national greenhouse gas emissions by 37% and 43% by 2025 and 2030, respectively (in relation to the amount of gases emitted in the country in 2005).

Márcio Rojas, the ministry's climate general coordinator, stresses that the study's data should not be seen as guidelines but as a broad picture of what the country could do about the issue.

To achieve the country´s goal, the ministry model adopts relatively conservative starting points, without undertaking major technological changes that make clean technologies much cheaper or that CO2 emissions will be heavily taxed.

In the context of the Paris Agreement, Brazil has two "advantages", one positive and the other accidental. The first has to do with the fact that, as the base year for the cut is 2005, the initial emissions were marked by uncontrolled deforestation in the Amazon, nowadays a lot lower.

In a more ambitious scenario evaluated by the ministry, ensuring that only deforestation allowed by law occurs in the Amazon, as well as reducing deforestation by 40% in biomes such as the Pantanal (wetland) and the caatinga (semiarid region), would be one of the most impacting actions regarding total Brazilian emissions.

Increasing the efficiency of national livestock farming, which today is very extensive (with few animals per area), would also have a great impact.
The second "advantage" is the severe economic crisis of the last three years, as more economic activity tends to generate more emissions.

The agricultural, livestock and forestry sectors are those that would require the most investment to achieve the emission goals in full: about US $ 13 billion by 2030. In industry and energy generation, the total net cost would be zero thanks to the efficiency gains of measures that also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, Brazilian GDP growth would lose less than 0.1% of its expected increase per year. From the international point of view, Brazilian efforts fit into a scenario in which China has assumed an increasing role.

Translated by MARINA DELLA VALLE

Read the article in the original language