Analysis: Looking Beyond the Next Crisis

08/19/2015 - 08h48

When Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Dilma Rousseff hold their summit this week in Brasilia, they will both be taking time out from dealing with multiple crises.

Merkel will be coming fresh from a vote on the Greek economic crisis, which poses an existential threat to European Union and the common currency, and Dilma may be happy to take a pause from the various challenges facing her government.

As urgent and troubling as these economic and political crises are, long after they have become a distant memory the world will very likely be facing a different crisis of much greater proportions and longer time horizon - global climate change.

Responding to the climate crisis is on the meeting's agenda. The question remains how ambitious the outcome of the meeting will be. Both countries can claim some past success in combatting climate change.

Brazil has reduced Amazon deforestation rates by two thirds from levels of a decade ago, resulting in a dramatic drop in its carbon emissions. Germany has reduced its emissions by 24% since 1990 while achieving strong economic growth, and is aiming to achieve a 40% reduction by 2020.

Germany has also contributed immensely to driving down renewable energy costs, particularly wind and solar energy, through its pioneering incentive scheme that enabled these technologies to achieve economies of scale and dramatically increased efficiencies, to the point where they are now cost-competitive with conventional energy sources in many markets.

Nevertheless, Brazil's emissions from all other sectors besides deforestation are rising steadily, and deforestation in Amazonia has been creeping up again, perhaps because of changes to the Forest Code in 2012 that weakened forest protection.

Protection of forests and biodiversity could be further eroded by provisions in the "Agenda Brazil", which is currently being introduced to Congress with the President's support.

Despite its progress in many areas, Germany's energy sector still burns significant amounts of dirty coal and the government has been delaying adoption of policies to phase out fossil fuels use over the coming decades. Both countries remain in the top 10 highest emitting nations, and global emissions continue to rise inexorably.

Clearly more must be done, and this summit, coming just months before an historic global conference in December to create a new global climate agreement, is a perfect opportunity to do so. So what could this summit accomplish?

First, raise the global stakes with strong climate targets and long-term strategy to decarbonize both economies. Brazil has yet to announce its climate target for 2025 and 2030, but a coalition of civil society organizations have proposed a target of at most 1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions, and demonstrated how it can be done.

One element of such a strategy is to end natural forest loss well before 2030.

At the Brasilia meeting, President Dilma should state her determination to ensure that indigenous territories, where forests remain almost entirely intact, and other protected areas remain off limits to mining or agricultural production and that these protections are not weakened by legislative reforms such as some of those included in the "Agenda Brasil".

Germany has committed to a 55% emission reduction as its contribution to the Europe's overall target of "at least" 40% reductions by 2030. Merkel can follow though on her promise to increase financial support for developing country actions, and by pushing the EU to increase its weak targets.

Second, join forces to achieve a strong agreement in Paris. An outcome is needed where countries make appropriate commitments and deliver on them in a transparent and accountable way, with mechanisms and incentives to increase ambition in the short and medium term.

This can include collaborative action in order to address the gap between the aggregate efforts of all countries and the emission levels required to avoid dangerous climatic disruptions.

Third, pragmatically and urgently strengthen and expand a range of initiatives to ensuring the use of the most efficient and sustainable technologies, in cooperation with the private sector and other relevant actors.

Finally, perhaps the most important outcome of this summit would be a recognition that the deepening disruptions to our global climate are increasingly intertwined with the other more immediate and visible crises.

Brazilians can see first-hand how climatic disruptions can threaten electricity and water supplies, leading to shortages and higher costs. The solutions to our energy challenges could be sustainable renewable energies, and not polluting fossil fuel generation or countless new massive hydroelectricity projects in the Amazon region.

Investments in Brazil's infrastructure and future economy can be based on the assumption that we will extract and burn every last drop of fossil fuels, no matter what the climate consequences, or a rational and just transition to a sustainable economy based on the technologies of the future.

Perhaps the current crises could be a huge opportunity for Brazil and the world.

MARL LUTES, Global Climate Policy Advisor to the Climate Observatory.

	Ina Fassbender/Reuters
	Ants carry a leaf with a slogan reading "Merkel, Help!", a reference of Angela Merkel, at the zoo in Cologne