São Paulo Has Lowest Murder Rate Since 1996

27/01/2016 - 09h07

São Paulo State had in 2015 its lowest murder rate in at least two decades. And, for the first time in the time series, it was lower than ten cases per 100,000 inhabitants, outside the zone considered epidemic by the government and international reports, such as those by the United Nations (UN).

The annual rate closed at 8.73 per 100,000 inhabitants. The previous best result was 10.06, in 2014 - less than a third of the level recorded in 1996, first full year with data published by the State Department of Public Security on the internet.

Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) attributed the results to police work over the years. "It didn´t happen by chance. This is the result of a lot of dedication. Police officers were killed, lost their lives, anonymous heroes, so that São Paulo could reach this achievement," he said.

Security experts interviewed by Folha agree that there has been improvement in the police investigation of these crimes in the last two decades, including specific mapping of critical areas.

However, they also point at least two other contributing factors: better control of firearms after the disarmament statute, in 2003; and the reduction of disputes over selling points due to the domain of the PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital, in English, First Command of the Capital) as a criminal organization in these places.

In the country, according to a survey of the Brazilian Forum on Public Security, the average homicide rate was 25.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2014, the most recent data available. The highest rate in the country was recorded by Alagoas State, with 61.9 proportional cases.

In São Paulo, the reduction of homicides in the period of one year was 12.5% in the whole State - 3,757 cases, against 4,293 in 2014.

A similar fall was recorded in the State capital, which had already recorded homicide rates below 10 per 100,000 in 2011 and 2014. The rate fell again and stood at 8.56 in 2015.

Greater São Paulo, despite the decrease in cases, has never been in this situation and continues within the epidemic zone, with a rate of 10.13.

The methodology used by the state government to account for the homicide rate is different from the one employed by part of the experts and international organizations.

In São Paulo it is calculated based on the number of cases, not victims - each record can include more than one victim.

A slaughter involving eight deaths, like the one last year in Osasco, is considered just one case.

If the rate was calculated based on the number of victims of homicide, armed robbery and police intervention, it would be 11.7 in the state.

"The most relevant is that the curve of [homicides in] São Paulo is descendant, while in the rest of the country the curve is ascending" said Alexandre de Moraes, Secretary of Public Security.

Asked by Folha, he did not comment on the possibility that of other factors - in addition of police work - have contributed to the fall in homicides.

Translated by MARINA DELLA VALLE

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	Alex Falcão/Futura Press/Folhapress
	São Paulo had in 2015 its lowest murder rate in two decades; Alckmin attributed the results to police work over the years