Publicidade
Publicidade
Telegrama mostra opinião de petistas e acadêmicos sobre Zelaya; leia em inglês
Publicidade
DE SÃO PAULO
ID 231618
Date: 10/27/2009 16h49
09SAOPAULO619
Consulate Sao Paulo
CONFIDENTIAL
09BRASILIA1210|09SAOPAULO497
Para EUA, Brasil ficou 'perdido' depois de golpe em Honduras
Veja como funciona o WikiLeaks
Veja as principais revelações do WikiLeaks
Leia a cobertura completa sobre WikiLeaks
Leia íntegra dos arquivos do WikiLeaks obtidos pela Folha
VZCZCXRO1119RR RUEHRGDE RUEHSO #0619/01 3011247ZNY CCCCC ZZHR 271649Z OCT 09 ZDSFM AMCONSUL SAO PAULOTO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0012INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCIONRUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTARUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0010RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 0003RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0003RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALARUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0003RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 0003RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 0008RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 0009RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGORUEHSN/AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR 0001RUEHTG/AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPA 0001
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000619 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TO ADD PARA MARKING SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, ES, GT, HO, BR SUBJECT: Sao Paulo Opinion Split on Honduras REF: BRASILIA 1210; (08) SAO PAULO 497 SAO PAULO 00000619 001.5 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: David C. Brooks, State, State, POL; REASON: 1.4
1. (C) Summary: Sao Paulo pundits and politicos are strongly split on Brazilbs role in Honduras. Mainstream academic experts in this generally pro-PSDB state criticized Brazilbs shielding of Zelaya as adventurist, counter-productive and contradictory of the countrybs traditional policy of non-intervention. Workers Party (PT) contacts, in contrast, strongly defended the Lula governmentbs decision to shelter Zelaya. They argue that permitting Zelayabs overthrow to go unchallenged would have a domino effect, putting at risk other left-oriented regimes in El Salvador and Guatemala and thereby endangering the PTbs bsocial democraticb (i.e. non-Chavez) vision for Latin America. Evidently, at least some in the PT ranks now see democratically-elected, left-oriented Central American regimes as junior allies to be protected. End Summary.
2. (SBU) This cable resulted from a wide range of interviews with foreign policy experts and Workers Party (PT) contacts, including: University of Sao Paulo Professor Jose Augusto Guilhon de Abuquerque; Felipe DbAvila and Rogerio Schmitt of the Center for Leadership Training; Professors Marcus Freitas and Gunther Rudzit of the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation (FAAP); General Alberto Santos Cruz of the Brazilian Army; PT founder and Sao Paulo City Council member Jose Americo; and PT State Deputy Rui Falcao. The Critics: Brazil is Dancing to Chavezb Tune
3. (C) All the critics (Albuquerque, DbAvila, Schmitt, Freitas, Rudzit and Santos Cruz) thought that Hugo Chavez had set the agenda for Brazil in Honduras. Most believed that Zelayabs September 23 appearance at the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa had taken the GOB by surprise. Moreover, they viewed Zelayabs subsequent use of the Embassy as a base of operation to provoke demonstrations in his favor as contradicting Brazilbs longstanding policy of non-intervention. This also completely undercut the GOBbs credibility as a mediator, leaving Brazil with less flexibility, they concluded. A Slide Into Greater Intervention
4. (SBU) Professor Albuquerque was more subtle than most critics, noting that President Lulabs predecessor, PSDB President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, also tried to influence his neighborsb politics. Brazil, Albuquerque stated, blocked a coup against President Wasmosy of Paraguay in 1996 and pressured President Fujimori to resign in Peru in 2000. These moves, though representing a departure from strict non-intervention, were low profile, supported bmid-term negotiated solutionsb and clearly had the object of preserving democracy as their goal. The Lula administration has changed this logic, becoming an open protagonist for Zelaya, a man whose democratic credentials are questionable. This may work well in the short term, Albuquerque said, but if the policy proves costly, Brazilian public opinion could react against it. Brazil, unlike the other BRICs, has suffered no threats to its borders and, consequently, there is no popular consensus to support costly foreign interventions. PT Reps Defend the Policy as Principle, Zelaya as bFamilyb
5. (SBU) PT reps Rui Falcao and Jose Americo both stated flatly that, even though the GOB was likely bset upb by Chavez, a PT government had to defend Zelaya as a matter of principle. As a party whose leaders had suffered under a former military regime, the Lula administration could not turn its back on Zelaya. Had it done so, the partybs base would have reacted strongly. Americo, in particular, acknowledged that Zelayabs own record had its blemishes, but he countered by saying that Zelaya was like ba bad son-in-law,b though he might cause trouble, he was still bfamilyb and the PT was obliged to come to his aid. Honduras is Not the Point
6. (SBU) Beyond family ties, Falcao and Americo both argued SAO PAULO 00000619 002.5 OF 002 Honduras as a possible tipping point for Central America. The PT has a bsocial democraticb (i.e. non-Chavez) vision for Latin America, and Zelayabs successful overthrow could have undermined two other key elected Central American leaders who fit into this: Mauricio Funes in El Salvador and Alvaro Colom in Guatemala. (Note: Americo noted several connections between El Salvadorbs President Funes and Brazil. He reminded Poloff that Funesb spouse is Brazilian and a member of the PT, said that Funes had visited Sao Paulo in August, and described how Funes had recently promoted a certain Colonel DbAvila in the Salvadoran Army, bumping him up over several other officers. This last, if correct, suggested a rather surprising level of detailed knowledge of Salvadoran politics for a state-level Brazilian politician. End Note.) Both PT reps stated that Funes and Colom had won recent elections by narrow margins. If Zelayabs deposition had remained unopposed, the U.S.-trained armies in their countries might have felt tempted to try something similar. The PT reps saw this as possible even under President Obama because, in their view, the Pentagon has its own agenda. Americo justified the vigorous defense of Zelaya, saying that bdespite the good intentions of President Obama and Secretary Clinton, the Pentagon apparatus can enforce its own agendab in the region, and so a vigorous defense of Zelaya was required.
Comment: 7. (C) Foreign Policy does not rate highly on the list of most Braziliansb concerns. As such, the GOB can generally do what it wants in places like Honduras, so long as there are no significant economic or human costs to the policy. PT insiders notions of Central American dominos could be significant. While some dose of anti-Pentagon paranoia figured in their statements, it is clear that at least for some in the PT base, Brazil should act as a patron for democratically elected left-oriented regimes in Central America, a region that, heretofore, has lain outside Brazilbs traditional sphere of influence. White
+ Canais
+ Notícias em Poder
- Em sua despedida do Senado, Marina Silva se emociona ao falar sobre saída do PT
- Após um ano e dois meses parado, processo da Satiagraha volta andar
- Supremo decide que titular de cartório não concursado deve sair do cargo
- Justiça Eleitoral de SP desaprova contas de Marta Suplicy
- Michel Temer formaliza renúncia da Presidência da Câmara
- Dilma cancela ida a jantar com presidentes do Mercosul
- Roriz é condenado pagar danos morais a cabo eleitoral que ficou cego
- PF leva presidente e vice do Tribunal de Justiça do Tocantins para depor
+ Livraria
- Box de DVD reúne dupla de clássicos de Andrei Tarkóvski
- Como atingir alta performance por meio da autorresponsabilidade
- 'Fluxos em Cadeia' analisa funcionamento e cotidiano do sistema penitenciário
- Livro analisa comunicações políticas entre Portugal, Brasil e Angola
- Livro traz mais de cem receitas de saladas que promovem saciedade
Publicidade
As Últimas que Você não Leu
Publicidade
+ LidasÍndice
- Nomeação de novo juiz do Supremo pode ter impacto sobre a Lava Jato
- Indicação de Alexandre de Moraes vai aprofundar racha dentro do PSDB
- Base no Senado exalta currículo de Moraes e elogia indicação
- Na USP, Moraes perdeu concursos e foi acusado de defender tortura
- Escolha de Moraes só possui semelhança com a de Nelson Jobim em 1997
+ Comentadas
- Manifestantes tentam impedir fala de Moro em palestra em Nova York
- Temer decide indicar Alexandre de Moraes para vaga de Teori no STF
+ EnviadasÍndice