Brazil's population is expected to start decreasing in 2042, according to new projections from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released this Thursday (22). The agency expects the number of inhabitants to grow until peaking at 220.43 million in 2041, after which it will begin to shrink. The decline is expected to intensify in the following decades, bringing the population below 200 million by 2070 (199.2 million).

The IBGE updated its estimates based on data from the 2022 Census and the PPE (Post-Enumeration Survey), which aims to assess the quality of the census. The agency also took into account information from other sources on the dynamics of births, deaths, and migration. The projections released this Thursday cover the period from 2000 to 2070.

"We will have the population growing at increasingly lower rates, and the last year of population growth in Brazil will be 2041," said Marcio Minamiguchi, manager of population projections and estimates at IBGE, while presenting the data. "Starting in 2042, we will begin to see a population decline. This reduction will occur at an increasingly faster pace [until 2070]," he added.