Datafolha's Runoff Numbers: Aécio Neves Starts with 51% Compared to 49% from Dilma Rousseff

10/10/2014 - 09h15

The presidential election runoff starts with an extremely tight race.

Datafolha's poll, finalized on Thursday (9), shows a technical tie between Senator Aecio Neves (PSDB) and President Dilma Rousseff (PT).

In this first survey, the PSDB politician running for office appears to be ahead, numerically, with 51% of the valid vote intentions, compared to 49% from the PT candidate.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. Thus, Neves could have between 49% and 53% whereas Rousseff could have between 47% and 51%.

Considering all polls from the institute since 1989, this is the first time a candidate who came second in the first round appears to have more voting intentions than the winner in a runoff poll.

In the first round, Rousseff got 41.59% of the votes and Aécio 33.55%; in third, Marina Silva (PSB) had 21.32%.

Analyzing the historical polarization between PT and PSDB parties, it is also the first time since 2002 that a PSDB candidate appears numerically ahead of a PT candidate in a simulation at a decisive election.

The total vote numbers are: 46% for Neves, 44% for Rousseff, 4% willing to vote null or blank, and 6% undecided.

Rousseff government's evaluation reveals a stable situation for the president: 39% of the people heard believe the government is good or excellent.

This is the same level obtained in the two previous polls. Then, 38% rate the government as regular and 22% think government is bad or very bad - a point less from a previous survey.

Datafolha heard 2,879 voters in 178 municipalities between Wednesday (8) and Thursday (9). The confidence level of the poll is 95% (100 surveys using the same methodology, results are within the margin of error on 95 occasions).

The poll registration number in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal is BR-01068/2014.

Translated by SIMONE PALMA

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	Editoria de Arte/Folhapress