Bolsonaro's First 6 Months: 44 Key Indicators Worsened and 28 Improved

The economy remained stable but education and environment worsened


Data from 90 key indicators, ranging from the economy to the environment, show that most of these worsened in the first six months of Jair Bolsonaro's (PSL) administration.

Folha analyzed 87 official and scholar statistics that have figures up to the first half of 2019 and cross-checked them with 2018 data. Of this, 44 worsened, 15 remained stable, and 28 showed some improvement.

Among the most deteriorating indicators are education, health, and environment. The official data by the Ministry of Justice show improvement in crime rates. The economy remained stable.

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro looks on during a promotion ceremony for generals of the armed forces, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil August 9, 2019. REUTERS/Adriano Machado - REUTERS

Due to the short time frame and the complexity of the areas addressed, the indicators do not necessarily depend on federal management. The greatest responsibility for public safety, for example, lies with state governments. In the economy, several indicators are influenced by policy over the years and policies beyond Brazil.

Still, under the limited practical effect of the liberal orientation of the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, the economic indicators presented equivalence between the data that got worse and the ones that improved.

Of the 47 economic indicators analyzed, 20 worsened and 20 improved. Another seven remained stable.

In the negative slice of the data, we highlight the behavior in the area of foreign trade, industry, and household indebtedness.

On the other hand, there is an improvement in inflation and stock market indices, as well as a slight increase in employment results in the country.

In the early months of the year, the economy continued without vigor. First-quarter GDP — the most recent data from the IBGE — fell by 0.2 percent from the previous quarter. Inflation improved.

In health, the data collected was based on indicators monitored in the Ministry of Health's Datasus systems. The data show a worsening in the provision of assistance in primary care, an area that represents the gateway to SUS. An example is the drop in the number of doctors who work in the basic health units, places that, ideally, should solve up to 80% of cases that come to the system.

There was an improvement in only 1 out of 12 education-related indicators: MEC was able to offer more contracts from Fies, the student finance program.

There was a drop in the number of research grants and the depletion of projects for primary education. Federal investments for literacy scholarships and support for integral education stopped.

In the environment, a recent crisis focus between Bolsonaro and area technicians, deforestation in the Amazon increased by 25% in April, May and June 2019 compared to the same period of 2018.

In the area of security, data for the first quarter of 2019 show a decrease in intentional homicides of 22% compared to the same period in 2018. The Ministry of Justice's Sinesp (National Public Security Information System) records a drop in all violent crimes. However, the system does not obey essential criteria of statistical standardization and, therefore, researchers distrust the data. 

Translated by Kiratiana Freelon

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