Datafolha: Lula leads with 43% of Voting Intentions in The 1st Round; Bolsonaro Gains Momentum and Scores 26%

Research shows that race for Planalto remains polarized between PT and the president

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has recovered a bit of breath in the race for the Palácio do Planalto and reached 26% of voting intentions in the dispute, which continues to be led by PT Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 43%.

Tied for third place are ex-judge Sergio Moro (Podemos, 8%) and ex-minister Ciro Gomes (PDT, 6%), closely followed by a squad of opponents.

This is what Datafolha's new poll on the October presidential election shows, carried out with 2,556 voters in 181 cities across the country, this Tuesday (22) and Wednesday (23). The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-08967/2022.

The survey is not directly comparable to the previous survey, carried out from December 13 to 16, as it applies different scenarios — basically, removing names dropped out of the Presidential race, such as Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), Senator Alessandro Vieira (PSDB -SE) and former minister Aldo Rebelo (non-party).

The names of Vera Lúcia (PSTU), André Janones (Avante) and Leonardo Péricles (UP) were included in the simulations of this survey.

In that round, Lula fluctuated from 47% to 48%, and Bolsonaro, from 21% to 22%. Other numbers, those comparable to December, show a slight improvement in the scenario for the president, something already pointed out in an analysis of social networks.

He gained five points in spontaneous voting intentions (18% to 23%), while PT fluctuated from 32% to 30%.

Translated by Kiratiana Freelon

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