Banks Fear Bolsonaro Will Be Like Dilma and Spend More than He Can

Stock market crash and dollar rise reflect distrust in post-pandemic fiscal control policy


Bankers, managers of large investment funds, and economists think there is a risk that President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) will drastically increase government spending. With that, he can follow in the footsteps of Dilma Rousseff (PT), who was impeached for failing to comply with tax rules and, thus, committing a crime of responsibility.

For them, the Datafolha survey released on Thursday (13) showed that government financial aid to reduce the impact of the pandemic on families catapulted support for Bolsonaro. Now, the president signals more willingness to elect mayors this year, and he appears willing to use monetary assistance to help win the elections. The market's indisposition this Monday (17) was a reflection of this concern.

Jair Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro. Foto: Marcos Corrêa/PR - Marcos Corrêa/PR

One partner in large main investment firm warned of the rise in the dollar and the fall of the Ibovespa at a time when the other Exchanges are trending upwards, showing that the winds have started to change.

He thinks 90 percent of this drop reflects that the market feels the discal framework is deteriorating. The remaining 10% is due to the wear and tear of Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) in the face of Bolsonaro's insistence on extending emergency aid of R$ 600 to families and credit to companies in difficulties until the end of the year.

Translated by Kiratiana Freelon

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