Brazil could reach 180 thousand (from 172 thousand to 192 thousand, according to the margin of error of the estimate) Covid-19 deaths by January 1, 2021, even with maintaining social distancing and isolation. If the distance measures become more flexible, up to 182.3 thousand deaths are expected (from 172 thousand to 196 thousand, also according to a margin of error). The forecasts come from the Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The institute is one of the largest research centers on global diseases and public health metrics. In addition to Brazil, the institute provides forecasts for 163 other countries and a global estimate. The last update on the website is October 2nd.
On Saturday, the country reached 150,000 deaths from Covid-19 in about seven months. If it continues at this pace, the estimate is an additional 30,000 deaths in less than three months, equivalent to an average of 377.75 daily deaths.
On September 28, the world reached 1 million deaths from Covid-19. Simultaneously, several countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are experiencing an increase in cases.
Translated by Kiratiana Freelon