Brazil's Military Elite Sees France as A Threat

Secret document envisions war over the Amazon, American bases in Brazil, Chinese action and even terror at Rock in Rio

São Paulo

The Brazilian military elite views France as a strategic threat to Brazil. This stems from France's renewed interest in internationalizing the Amazon.

This is the view of the secret draft "Defense Scenarios 2040", a document that Folha accessed. The document helps to support the ongoing review of the National Defense Strategy and will be sent to Congress by June.

Their views may or may not be accepted by the defense ministry. Still, they reflect the feelings among the officers - the meetings took place in military commands, organized by the Escola Superior de Guerra.

(FILES) In this file photograph taken on June 28, 2019, France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) and Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro attend a meeting on the digital economy at the G20 Summit in Osaka. (Photo by Jacques Witt / POOL / AFP) - AFP


The folder says that it spoke to people from the "internal and external sphere". According to those involved in the process, the military is the absolute majority of ears.

The 45-page text contains realistic geopolitical considerations and somewhat delusional hypotheses. It forecasts the installation of American bases in Brazil, wars, and even a coronavirus attack against Rock in Rio in 2039.

There are four general scenarios: automatic alignment from Brazil to the United States with or without budgetary restrictions for defense, and the country's overall relationship, also in large or small amounts.

The only constant threat in all cases is France, reflecting the clash between Bolsonaro and President Emmanuel Macron in the second half of 2019 when the Frenchman suggested the internationalization of the Amazon in the face of the region's fire crisis.

 Translated by Kiratiana Freelon

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