President Dilma Rousseff Grows and Opposition Shrinks in Polls, According to Datafolha

12/02/2013 - 08h54

From June on, the pre-candidates for president did what was possible to regain lost popularity due to the protests in streets across the country. For now, only President Dilma Rousseff has followed an upward trend. The opposition is between good and bad times, and has now shrunk a bit more, according to Datafolha.

Dilma and her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, both from the PT, are leading the presidential race in all the most likely scenarios for 2014, for which Datafolha tested nine combinations of names.

Of all the simulations with the pre-candidates' names, the scenario that seems most likely today is also the one in which Dilma is best placed. She has 47% against Aécio Neves's 19% (PSDB) and Eduardo Campos's 11% (PSB). In October, she came in with 42%. Neves had 21% and Campos had 15%.

In this scenario, the percentage of voters who handed in blank ballots, null ballots or said they were undecided was unchanged at 23%, from October until now. In other words, the PT grew by extracting votes from both opponents during this period. It would win in the first round.

The president would only not win the election in the first round of voting today in the scenarios that Marina Silva appears as a candidate. The ex-senator is now affiliated with the PSB and it is not yet certain she will run in next year's elections.

In one of the simulations, the PT stays at 41% of the vote with the other two adversaries combined taking 43% of the vote (Marina with 24% and José Serra with 19%). But Dilma is recovering. In October, she had 37%, while Marina had 28% and Serra had 20%.

The president of the Supreme Court, Joaquim Barbosa, tested in one of the scenarios, appears with 15%, numerically in second place. Dilma, with 44%, would win in the first round. Aécio would have 14% and Camps 9%.

Unlike Dilma, former-President Lula would win the election in the first round of voting in all four scenarios where his names appears, including against Marina and Serra.

Translated by JILL LANGLOIS

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	Eduardo Knapp - 23.dez.2010/Folhapress
	Dilma and her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, are leading the presidential race in all the most likely scenarios for 2014