Aécio Neves Moves Ahead, and Rousseff's Chances for Re-Election in the 1st Round Moves Back

05/09/2014 - 08h50

President Rousseff has less chances of winning in the first round on October 5 election. One of the main reasons was the vote growth in the polls for pre-candidate Senator Aécio Neves (MG), from the opposition party PSDB.

According to Datafolha research, the most likely scenario currently forecasts 37% of intended vote for PT, governing party, while the other candidates 38%, altogether. It is a situation of a technical tie since the margin of error is two percentage points, more or less.

Datafolha's poll was performed yesterday and the day before with a total of 2,844 interviews in 174 municipalities of the country.

Despite the variation in the margin of error, Dilma's voting intentions curve is not stable. She has gradually moved back in Datafolha's research - while her two main rivals have been on the rise.

In today, the most likely scenario, in October, will be Dilma leading, with 37% of votes and the second Aécio, with 20%. He had 16% in early April. The PSDB politician gained four points, the greatest variation among all candidates.

The third place is Eduardo Campos (PSB), he had 11% and now he also sees an increase in the voting intentions, always within the margin of error - he had 10% preference in April and 9% in February.

The politician is well known or somewhat known by 25% of voters. This rate is 86% for Dilma and 42% for Aécio.

According to Datafolha, 16% of respondents said they would vote blank, null or in none of the candidates, if elections were held today. Another 8% said they are still undecided.

Dilma and the PT made ​​an effort in recent days to stop the loss in popularity. The president spoke for 12 minutes on radio and television networks on the eve of May 1st, Labor Day, and re-launched her candidacy in a partisan meeting next to former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

It is unclear whether the effort has paid off. Although the change in voting intentions for Dilma has been negative in Datafolha's poll, she is within the margin of error. Government approval (the sum of those who think government is "great" or "good") today is 35%. A month ago, it was 36%.

One positive aspect for the president is that the economic expectations of voters have stopped deteriorating.

But the electorate yearning for change has continued to grow. Today, 74% of voters say they want changes in how the country is governed. When Datafolha asks who could make these changes, the name that appears at the top is Lula's, with 38%. Dilma is mentioned by 15%. She had 16% a month ago and 19% in February.

Aécio and Campos improved their performance since February. About two months ago, the politician from the PSDB party was named as the most prepared to make changes by 10% of voters. Now, 19% think the same. Campos had 5% and now has 10% approval.

The group of candidates with less votes is led by a former PT and Rousseff's supporter, Pastor Everaldo (PSC), with 3% of the intended votes and he is technically tied with other candidates.

Eduardo Jorge (PV), José Maria (PSTU), Denise Abreu (PEN) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PSOL) reported 1% each. Eymael (PSDC), Levy Fidelix (PRTB) and Mauro Iasi (PCB ) had less than 1%.

	Editoria de Arte/Folhapress

Translated by SIMONE PALMA

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