Marina Silva Could Tie with Rousseff in Eventual Second Round

08/18/2014 - 10h50

Marina Silva (PSB) enters the race for the presidency with poll ratings of 21%.

As things stand, this puts her in second place, a point ahead of the Social Democrat candidate Aécio Neves (effectively a tie, when margin of error is taken into account), and 15 points behind Dilma Rousseff of the governing Workers' Party (PT).

Previously the running mate of Eduardo Campos, who died tragically in a plane crash last week, Silva is likely to throw her hat into the ring officially on Wednesday.

Poll ratings suggest that her entrance into the race significantly reduces the chances of Rousseff winning in the first round.

Moreover, if Silva were to face Rousseff in the event of a second round, she would receive 47% of the vote against just 43% for Rousseff.

Again, this is technically a tie, as it falls within the designated margin of error (two percentage points either way).

Were Rousseff to face Neves in the second round, she would win with 47% of the vote against 39%, an advantage which has increased significantly in the last month.

In mid-July, it stood at just 44% to 40% - again, effectively a tie.

Silva's entrance into the race makes a second round far more likely. Her poll ratings are almost three times those of her former running mate, which stood at just 8%.

At the same time, however, her entrance has not significantly affected the poll ratings of her two main rivals. Before last week, Rousseff's ratings stood at 36%, while Neves' remained at 20%.

Silva's support appears to come from those who previously suggested they would spoil their ballots, and those who were undecided.

The former were polling at 13% before last week; this figure has now fallen to 8%. Likewise, the rating for undecided voters has fallen from 14% to 9%.

Several commentators have suggested that Silva will benefit from the increasing levels of frustration with the current political system.

In the protests of June 2013, a recurring theme was an explicit rejection of the established parties across the political spectrum.

The data of the current poll seems to corroborate this interpretation: Silva's support comes from those who either explicitly rejected all other candidates, or from those who could not decide for whom to vote.

Another piece of data that supports this thesis is the poll ratings without Silva as a possible option.

Indeed, this is a possibility. The PSB may still decide to withdraw its support from Silva, as she had no connection with the party prior to her involvement with Campos' campaign.

If Silva does not run, Rousseff would win the election in the first round with 41% of the vote (8 points ahead of the figure for all the other candidates put together).

However, the number of spoiled ballots would be 13%, while the undecided voters would stand at 12%.

An overall analysis of the latest polls suggests that Silva's entry comes as the President appears to be rallying.

Not only has Rousseff increased her advantage over Neves in the event of a possible second round, but approval ratings for her administration have also improved.

Ratings of those criticizing her presidency have dipped slightly (from 35% to 34%), and the number of those who said they would vote for Rousseff even before being presented with the list of candidates has risen from 22% to 24%.

Datafolha surveyed 2843 voters across 176 municipalities on August 14 and 15.

Translated by TOM GATEHOUSE

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	Editoria de Arte/Folhapress