Analysis: A Bullet to President Temer's Political Heart, Recording Suggests Crime while in Office

05/18/2017 - 11h22

The plea-bargain of brothers Joesley and Wesley Batista is a bullet to the political heart of President Michel Temer (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party).

Up until now, he has dribbled with a mixture of good fortune and skill through the numerous citations of his name in the so-called Car Wash Operation (Lava Jato). Now, he could be charged, at a minimum, with committing a crime while in office, and obstruction of justice - if this is legally feasible, a question which has to be clarified.

The devastating surprise plea-bargain of the "JBS brothers" boxes in the President.

If the information reported by the "O Globo" (Globe) newspaper is confirmed, the President was at a minimum complicit in a conspiracy to obstruct the Car Wash investigation through payments for silence. Beyond this, he ordered a subordinate to help JBS resolve problems in the government.

Unlike all other accusations stemming from Car Wash, these actions took place after and while he was already in office. So, they don't fall under the famous "acts before taking office" which confers immunity a priori.

Obviously, this all depends on precise legal evaluations of what was recorded.

Politically, the President depends on the Congress and the continuing support of the business leadership elite. As he himself has already pointed out several times, his low level of popularity isn't something that bothers him, and at this point it seems unlikely that pressure from the streets will resume.

In a Parliament curdled by things that are similar or even worse, Temer could even hope to stay in power. But if he were formally charged by the General Federal Prosecutor of the Republic, could that be possible? Will the GDP stay with him?

Due to the lack of an option at the moment, perhaps so. A resignation, as we know, would open the way for an indirect election in Congress that nobody wants. So, for good or bad, the economy has been showing signs of stabilization and improvement.

All of this, however, might mean nothing if there were a consensus figure already being vetted by the same elite.

The option of Senator Aécio Neves, President of the PSDB Party (Brazilian Social Democracy), already seems to be definitively radioactive. For the PT Party (Workers' Party), one week after suffering the legal roughing up of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the details regarding the role of former strongman of the Economic Ministry, Guido Mantega, have emerged.

As an aside, but not so much so, it is impressive to see how, that one year after the recordings of PMDB Party shield-bearer Sergio Machado were made public, Brazilian politicians still have the courage to talk about illicit activities with a target of the Car Wash Operation.

And to think that they all sold themselves, in contrast to the political amateurs of the PT Party, as the "Professionals".

Translated by LLOYD HARDER

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