Putin Phoenix

09/04/2014 - 09h03

President Obama was in Estonia yesterday (September 3) where he met with the nervous presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, in late March, made a plea to NATO: Put 10,000 troops in Poland permanently.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, rejected the idea of a long term stationing of NATO troops in Eastern Europe. Donald Tusk is a hawk on the Ukraine and Russia. In December he will become the President of the European Council.

Today (September 4th) Obama will attend the biannual NATO summit meeting at the Celtic Manor Resort in Newport, South Wales. The NATO heads of state are planning to discuss the continuing crisis in the Ukraine, the Middle East, and Afghanistan. The assassination of a second American journalist by Islamic extremists in Iraq will top the agenda.

But foremost on all their minds will be the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Whether they like it or not they will have to decide how they return NATO to its original role: The territorial defence of Europe from potential state-on-state aggression by Moscow.

It will not be easy. European leaders and President Obama differ considerably in their responses to Putin. Under great pressure from his NATO allies yesterday President Francois of France at last suspended the delivery of a Misral-class helicopter carrier to Russia, the first of a two ship billion dollar France-Russian deal.

But Norway maintains its deal with Rosneft, the Russian state oil company, to supply US $4.25 worth of oil rigs to the Russian artic.

While the US provides 66.6% of NATO's military expenditures, the UK contributes 6.1%, France 6.6%, Germany 5.3%. The perception of weakness feeds a dangerous narrative with geo-political consequences.

Putin evidently calculates that he can ignore Angela Merkel and Barack Obama rhetorical protests while he moves relentlessly to carve out more of Ukraine for "Greater Russia," potentially establishing a land bridge within Ukraine between Russia and Russian annexed Crimea. Creating facts on the ground he is gambling on long term Russian strategic gains, and that Europe will in the end avoid confrontation.

Dimtry Rogozin, the Russian deputy prime minister, twitted images of Putin and Obama. Putin is show petting a Leopard. Obama is shown cuddling a fluffy puppy dog. It is Putin as "Macho Man." He enjoys over 80% support in Russia. NATO will probably agree to establish a joint expeditionary force of some 10,000 troops.

But this is no answer to the 150,000 troops Russia mobilized in its emergency war games along the frontiers of the Baltic States and Ukraine in February. Nor is it an answer to the nationalism, irredentism, and stealthy military aggression being deployed in the Ukraine by Russia.

Gideon Rachman writing in "The Financial Times" warns: "The perception of declining western power now threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

The only way for North Americans and Europeans to stop that happening is to work together with greater determination and purpose to combat the crises burning out of control on the fringes of Europe and the Middle East.

That work needs to begin at this week's NATO summit." Putin is calculating this is a very tall order.