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Lula Leads 2018 Election Voter Polls but Second Round Victory Would Prove Difficult

07/18/2016 - 11h48

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FERNANDO CANZIAN
FROM SÃO PAULO

Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the Datafolha voter polls in the first round of elections for the 2018 presidential campaign.

The PT member's lead does not, however, guarantee a second round victory and he could be defeated by former Senator Marina Silva (Rede) or Minister of Foreign Relations, José Serra (PSDB).

After splitting the electoral vote with Marina in the last few polls, Lula saw a favorable rise and gained an advantage over is his potential opponent, who saw a drop in this first round.

The potential PSDB candidates included in the findings (José Serra, Aécio Neves and Geraldo Alckmin ) fluctuated negatively or maintained their previous ratings, all of which worked in Lula's favor.

In the event of a second round between Lula and Marina, the ex-senator would defeat the PT member by 44% to 32%. Lula would also be defeated, 35% to 40%, if the second round candidate is Serra, accounting for a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

In general, however, the 2018 electoral framework remains largely undefined: nearly one fourth of voters (independent of the scenario) say that they would cast a blank or null vote in the first round or had no opinion.

SCENARIOS

In the first round scenario with Aécio as a PSDB candidate, Lula comes in with 22% of the vote, Marina with 17% and the PSDB member with 14%.

In the same scenario, Jair Bolsonaro (PSC) follows with 7% of the vote, Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 5%, Michel Temer (PMDB) with 5%, Luciana Genro (PSOL) with 2% and Ronaldo Caiado (DEM) ties with Eduardo Jorge (PV) for 1%.

In that same simulation, blank and null votes total 18% and 7% had no opinion. Therefore, none of the candidates surpass the sum of blank, null and undecided votes (25%).

Aécio Neves , who ran against Dilma Rousseff in the 2014 presidential election, today holds half of the vote he held in December 2015, when it reached 27%.

Among the other PSDB candidates, São Paulo governor, Geraldo Alckmin, holds 8% (he was at 14% in December) today and José Serra holds 11% (he held 15% of the vote in February).

Since the end of 2015, Marina Silva has lost more points in the scenarios with Alckmin or Serra as the PSDB candidates. With Aécio, her rating practically remains the same.

The study reveals that Lula achieves above average voter ratings among the poor and less educated, and is surpassed by his opponents as income and education levels rise.

But the PT member, who is being investigated by the Federal Police (along with his party), continues to be the most unpopular candidate among voters: 46% say they would not vote for him under any circumstances. He denies any irregularities.

Neves, who is in a technical tie with Lula in the second round simulation, is the target of two investigations in the Supreme Court.

Translated by SUGHEY RAMIREZ

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