What if Someone Believes?

09/16/2013 - 11h35

The arts and entertainment section reported - twice - that the comedy "What if Someone Believes?" on Multishow is the most-watched program on pay TV for the past 10 years. According to Folha, more than 11 million people saw the first 20 episodes of the series, which would be the highest mark reached by a previously recorded show (excluding those transmitted live).

Brazil has 17 million households with pay TV, which means, according to the government telecommunications agency ANATEL, 54.3 million viewers (at 3.2 people per household). Multishow's data mean that 21% who watch pay TV have already seen "What if Someone Believes?"

Juliana Coutinho/Divulgação

It is sort of like "Look Out Below" without major stars. The series takes place in Méier, a suburb of Rio de Janeiro, where Dona Jô's boarding house is located.

If you are not part of this multitude, here is a brief summary of the program: it is sort of like "Look Out Below" without major stars. The series takes place in Méier, a suburb of Rio de Janeiro, where Dona Jô's boarding house is located. On a revolving stage are Máicol (a strong but stupid young man), Jéssica (Dona Jô's daughter), Ferdinando (a poor gay man who fancies himself sophisticated) and Valdomiro (a clever good-for-nothing), among others.

The information that the series broke audience records was published in the "Other Channel" column on Aug. 16 and repeated 14 days later, in a headline about programming ("Program most seen on pay TV, 'What if it Works?' completes season").

What Folha did not say was the calculation of the audience was done by Multishow itself. The report attributed the number to the Ibope polling institute and told about the joy of the channel's director ("When the numbers came in, I thought that Ibope had made a mistake").

It's just that Ibope said that it did not perform this survey, asserted that it does not deal with the category of "previously recorded program" and counseled: "Next time, we suggest that you consult us before publication."

Multishow took the audience data from Ibope, using a criterion called "coverage" (which adds up different viewers by episode) and applied it over the total of people who watch pay TV (based on ANATEL).

The problem is that Ibope measures pay TV in nine markets, which don't represent all of Brazil. It is not correct to mix two different bases. It's as if one survey took intentions to vote for President Dilma Rousseff in nine state capitals and projected how many votes she would receive nationwide.

Besides this, it's difficult to talk about pay TV audience over 10 years because the bases are also different. In 2003, the sample was only six locations (São Paulo, Rio, Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, BrasIlia, and Porto Alegre). Today, Salvador, Campinas and Florianópolis are also included. It's comparing apples and oranges.

The newsroom was slow to recognize the error, but last Thursday it published a correction. The mistake is that the newspaper accepted the number supplied by the channel's PR people and did not check with the main source - the polling institute. "We talked to the channel's competitors, who confirmed the Multishow data," the arts and entertainment section said.

While *Folha*'s coverage of TV gives a huge emphasis to audience size, the numbers are always obtained secondhand. Ibope sells its surveys to TV stations and demands confidentiality. They leak the numbers that are in their interest - for their own propaganda or to deflate a competitor.

Journalists should doubt the flashiest numbers and remember the maxim that "statistics can be manipulated to say anything." TV channels, the same as companies, produce hundreds of positive data, offered daily to the press. They're just betting, what if it works...

WHAT'S YOURS, FOLHA?

The editorial "Judging peacefully" last Wednesday reaffirmed that Folha is against prison sentences for those found guilty in the "monthly allowance" mensalão scandal.

"This newspaper sees no reason for satisfaction with a spectacle of locking up, to applause, this or that person."

Readers reacted with indignation. "What's yours, Folha?" Did I change or did you change your editorial position and your values?" As a reader and fan, I feel betrayed," wrote businessman Marcelo Cherto, 59.

The historic position of the newspaper, before the mensalão scandal, is that only those who represent a danger to society should go to prison. As for those accused now, the newspaper already said the same thing last October.

You can agree or disagree with *Folha*'s position, but it is not correct to call it incoherent.

Translated by JOHN WRIGHT

Read the article in the original language