Brazil will not repeat in the coming years the strong migration of members from classes D/E to C seen in the first two terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), between 2003 and 2010. During that period, the expansion of the middle class was the president's main achievement.
This time, it will be class A and to a lesser extent B that will benefit the most due to high interest rates, low economic dynamism, and limited budget space to increase income transfers to the poor.
According to projections from the consultancy Tendências, the upper class will see the largest increase in real income (above inflation) from 2024-2028: 3.9% per year — something that already occurred in 2023. On the other hand, classes D/E will grow less, 1.5%, on average.
The income mass is composed of the sum of the usual income from all jobs, transfers from Bolsa Família program and social benefits, pensions, and other income sources, such as interest and dividends.