The rising prices of raw materials, such as soybeans and iron ore, will likely benefit Brazil for at least the next two years. Although it is too early to predict the size of this new cycle, the perception of analysts interviewed by Folha is that it will be less intense than the commodity boom of the 2000s.
Commodity prices using the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) index rose by almost 70% in one year. In the same period, metallic commodities tripled in price in the international market, mainly in iron ore (+ 150%), and agricultural products have already emerged from a longer appreciation, mainly from soy.
About two-thirds of the CRB's appreciation comes from China. The performance of metals is due to the stronger economic recovery of the country compared to the other countries. The Chinese demanded more metals for investments in infrastructure and construction.
According to the chief economist of MB Associados, Sérgio Vale, the current cycle of commodities will still continue for the next two years, as there are supply problems in some segments, such as soybeans, and a strong demand for meat.
"In metal products, there is also a prospect of maintaining demand, driven by the Joe Biden government's recovery plan for the American economy and the recovery of China after the pandemic," says Vale.
Translated by Kiratiana Freelon