Datafolha Poll: Bolsonaro Gets To 32%, Gaining Ground Among Women And In The Northeast

But second round simulations show a tie between Bolsonaro and Haddad

Ricardo Balthazar
São Paulo

The frontrunner in Brazil's presidential elections, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), gained ground against his competitor by growing in the two segments where he suffers the most rejection: women, younger people and Northeastern voters. 

According to the latest Datafolha poll, released on Tuesday (2nd), Bolsonaro, a retired Army captain, gained four percentage points since last week and obtained 32% of the nationwide voting intentions. 
Led by feminist groups, thousands of voters who oppose the candidate took to the street of the main Brazilian cities to protest against him on Saturday (29). The next day, Bolsonaro's admirers also gathered in the streets, but in fewer numbers. 


In second place, former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) went from 22% and 21%. However, the poll shows that his rejection increased. It had been on upward trend since he was confirmed as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's substitute in the presidential race, and this is the first time that his voting intentions shows as stagnated since. 

Among women, Bolsonaro increased from 21% to 27% of voting intentions, surpassing Haddad, with 20%. Bolsonaro's rejection rate is 49% among women. 

The captain also went from 31% to 36% in the Southeast and jumped from 35% to 44% in the South. Haddad kept his lead in the Northeast, with 36%, but his advantage against Bolsonaro shrunk, because the latter also gained ground in the region, the strongest PT stronghold in the country.If Bolsonaro and Haddad kept their positions until the election's first round on Sunday (7th), they will run against each other in the second round, on Oct. 28th.According to the Datafolha poll, Bolsonaro holds the equivalent of 38% of valid ballots, which means the number of ballots after excluding blank and null ones. An outright win in the first round would requite more than 50% of valid ballots. 

Datafolha interviewed 3240 voters of 225 towns on Tuesday. The margin of error is two percentage points, up or down. Folha de S.Paulo commissioned the poll.Ciro Gomes (PDT), who competed with PT for left-wing votes since the beginning of the year, shows as stagnated with 11% and tied with Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), who went down from 10% to 9%. 

Marina Silva (Rede), who in August competed for the second place with Gomes, took a tumble in the polls since then. She went from 5% to 4% last week, according to the latest Datafolha survey.Bolsonaro's rejection rate went from 46% to 45%, and it's the highest among all presidential runners, but Haddad's came close, rising from 32% to 41%. 

Bolsonaro and Haddad show as tied in Datafolha's second round simulations. In a scenario where they run against each other, Bolsonaro increased from 39% to 44% and Haddad went slightly down, from 45% to 42%. 

The PT candidate would inherit almost two thirds of Gomes and Silva's voters, and half of Alckmin's.In another simulations, Ciro is the most competitive against Bolsonaro. He would have 46% and Bolsonaro, 42%. If the second round were to have Alckmin against the captain, Alckmin would win by 43% and Bolsonaro, 41%.

Translated by NATASHA MADOV

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