Although his base at the Brazilian House of Representatives seems unstable, Jair Bolsonaro shouldn't have a hard time getting majority votes on bills related to his policy proposals, especially the economic ones.
A projection from labor union organization Interunion Department of Parliamentary Affairs (Diap) shows that the Bolsonaro administration should start with consistent support from 255 representatives and opposition from 141 lawmakers - a number smaller only than those faced by Fernando Collor and Lula on his first term.
The assessment is traditionally made at the beginning of every legislative term, based on the political stance of the elected political parties. The study is considering that part of Bolsonaro's support base will come from more socially conservative parties, as well as economically libertarian ones - although so far only PR has formally declared it will support the new administration.
PTB, which usually follows the executive, had already announced its support to Bolsonaro during the run-offs and PRB leadership has said that although there are points of convergence with the president, it won't be a part of his base.
"We feel that many might be aligned with Bolsonaro in the beginning, but this can change after the election for House Speaker. The support won't be conditional to the administration, but to the topics brought on," said Neuriberg Dias, a political analyst at Diap.
On Wednesday (2nd), Bolsonaro's party PSL declared it would support Rodrigo Maia's (DEM-RJ) reelection as House Speaker. The deal, Dias believes, will help Bolsonaro's economic plans go more smoothly in the House since Maia will be expected to expedite the bills for Social Security and Tax reforms, as well as the sale of state companies to the private sector.
To get a bill like the Social Security reform approved, the administration needs at least 308 votes. Former president Michel Temer (MDB) had the largest parliamentary base, according to Diap: 358 representatives. And although he was able to pass important bills, like the labor law reform, he couldn't get support for his proposed changes to Social Security.
Translated by NATASHA MADOV