Foreigners Wait For Election And Bolsonaro's Measures To Determine Investments

Contradictory statements between the candidate and his team raise doubt in analysts abroad

Danielle Brant
Nova York

A sort of restrained optimist is taking over foreign analysts that follow Brazil's economy. The fact that the frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has the liberal economist Paulo Guedes as his economic advisor is no longer sustaining the initial euphoria.

The expectation is now on which economic measures and names will be chosen in an eventual Bolsonaro candidate. There is some expectation about who will be Chief of Staff and if Ilan Goldfajn will leave his position as the Brazilian Central Bank president.

The general feeling is that, as long as there is no clarity on what is going to happen after the election and especially, after the new president takes office, stronger foreign investments in Brazil will stay in the back burner.

Bolsonaro's supporters during a rally in Recife, Pernambuco

"The transnational companies we talked to say they will wait and see," says Alec Lee, analyst for Brazil at the Frontier Strategy Group, a consulting firm specialized in emerging markets.

The investors want to see what will be the new cabinet's ability to attract people who are well-respected and aligned with the economic reform proposals announced by Bolsonaro's team.

James Roberts, a Latin America specialist at Heritage Foundation, believes that Bolsonaro's group will be initially successful. "He will place specialists, not politicians, in the ministries."

Roberts expects Paulo Guedes to help find people who will implement measures that "will sound like music to the market's ears", like privatizations and austerity measures.

Translated by NATASHA MADOV

Read the article in the original language